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Chances of a War

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by Muneeb Ali

Pakistanis feared, and expected, that the Mumbai attacks will be linked to their country. The media was curling its fingers around this juicy possibility. Hardly waiting to savor the escalating tensions. Even before they actually existed. Now, the Pakistan Army is considering moving its troops, from the Afghan front, back to where they belonged - the Punjab border. Indo-Pak tensions are, once again, creeping into casual conversations. However, there is little, if any, real chance of a war.

If the Pakistani troops start moving towards Lahore, buckle up for needlessly frenzied media reports. Lets not forget that the Pakistani army is currently dislocated. They will only be returning home. A scenario that neither America or Afghanistan can afford at this time. If the troops start building up across the Indo-Pak border, it means going back to playing cat and mouse. The largely harmless, and occasionally catastrophic, game that both armies are accustomed to playing for the past fifty plus years.
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We will not pay for the Mumbai attacks with an all out war. The newly acquired nuclear arsenal and continuing economic desperation, on both sides of the border, rule out that option. We will, however, pay for the Mumbai attacks with an increased instability in the region. A reduction in Pakistani troops on the Afghan border gives Al-Qaida the badly needed space it needs to breathe there. Lets not give them what they want. The Mumbai tragedy was bad enough. Lets not fall into the bigger trap. Not now. Not like this.

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